Echo of Thunder Weather

Gripes

Echo Of Thunder — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 21:47:33 +0000

Okay as some of you know I do not update my blog offend enough and I am sorry but I just have a few things I got to day.

I have heard so much crap of the 2010 hurricane season that it is nothing but a BUST! How untrue this is. Here I will tell you why it is NOT A BUST.

As of now the NHC is calling for
* 14-20 Named Storms,
* 8-12 Hurricanes
* 4-6 Major Hurricanes
* An ACE range of 170%-260% of the median.
As you see 14 is the low point. A Avg season is 10.
right now as of Aug 11 2010 we have had 3 named storms which is very near normal. Keep in mind we have not even reached the peak of hurricane season yet. Mid Sept.
So many people see these numbers given out by the NHC and countless others. yet they forget about the Peak of the season. From June 1st to Sept 15th is where to put it simply is when the Atlantic is being primed. It takes a lot of factors for a hurricane and even a TD to form. everything has to be just right. Air, humidity, water temps and alike. So when these places give out there Predictions, and everything starts out hunky dory and cool. DONT say its a Bust because it’s not.

my second grip are the people that only go by one hurricane model. So wrong they are. if your gonna try and Guess the weather, Don’t go with just a glance of one model. LOOK AT THEM ALL. There out there on the net. I have seen some people just go by one model and say oh its gonna be a Cat whatever and what happens? next statement fron the NHC was Downgraded to a rement low. Not only dumb but could also you killed.
Remember it only takes one to really give you a bad day.

So lets just forget about the numbers. Lets think of safety of yourself and others.

Echo Of Thunder.

back with ya

Echo Of Thunder — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 01:24:03 +0000

Well been awhile and I am sorry. been so busy lately with personal stuff.
Well it was a very nasty winter here in Echo Land. Over the winter we got an Estimated 6.5 feet of snow here in Red Bank NJ. Yes I said 6.5 feet! Not all at once thank God.
You can find some video of it at EOTWEATHER So much has happen since my last post. Earth Quakes in Chili Haiti China. Major tornado out break. “Yazoo City Mississippi”

what’s bad is I was looking at the 18Z GFS tonight and long about Sunday May 2 2010 what happens? they catch it again in that same area. Something they do not need. Could be a very wild weekend again so please keep up with your local NWS

John

big snow of 2010

Echo Of Thunder — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 05:28:55 +0000

Well folks here we go again, but this time it will be the real deal.
For the last few days some of you may have been hearing of the impending winter storm to hit the mid Atlantic states this weekend. well it is the real deal. As of this post I am under a Winter Storm Waring, but however just to my south they have a blizzard warning in effect. I do expect them to move that warning more to the west and north to include cities such as Philly and NYC. Some have even gone as far to say that this storm will make the history books. There will be places in South New Jersey and Delaware that could see over 24 inches of snow. That’s 2 feet folks.

As for timing, I feel myself as it should start up in south Jersey and Delaware early to mid afternoon and work its way north, New York City by early evening. and lasting until sun rise in the south and around noon in nyc. but that is only my feelings.

If you live in these effected areas please stay tuned to your local news outlets TV Radio and such, on the net you can go to your local NWS National Weather Service. I of course will be monitoring it as well at ECHO OF THUNDER WEATHER
I will have all the bells running such as Weather Radar out of New Jersey and when the snow starts here I will have the live stream up and or the stills being uploaded to the site every 30 sec depending on how busy live stream will be.

Now for the really important stuff. Safety.

if you are to be getting these heavy snowfall there are some things you need to remember.
Get your supplies you need early if you have not done so already. Things like Bread milk extra batteries gas for your snow blower. Also a good idea too to have extra blankets on hand because after this snow temps are really gonna take a dive and this snow that will be on the ground will be on it for awhile.
Another thing to remember too, Depending on the type of snow we get, powder or wet heavy stuff. If you must go out and shovel and use your snow blower remember to dress in layers and please DO NOT OVER DO IT! Many a heart attack has been caused by something like shoveling snow.

So in closing my friends please be careful if you must get out. and stay tuned to your local news and weather for any updates in or around your area.

John
Echo of Thunder Weather

back to the icebox again

Echo Of Thunder — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 04:44:16 +0000

back to the ice box again, but this time it’s dry. Ice and snow storm running from AZ to VA! even have had some srv thunderstorms in and around Dallas Fort Worth Metro area. reported by the weather channel a roof of a nursing home was blown off in Stevenson Tx today.

As of this post temp is 21 Degrees at 11:45pm and very windy. Betting wind chills have to be near zero. One word comes to mind. DAMN!

damn the cold

Echo Of Thunder — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 21:05:08 +0000

Wow this cold is unreal. Almost the whole eastern part of the US is in the grips of a hell of a cold snap. Snow has been reported as far south as the Fla panhandle “flurries” temps are at or near Zero in Wis and Min. More snow in the forecast more me on Friday too.
Good Ole El Nino, along with our normal 10 to 15yr cold pattern. Gotta love it huh?

Echo Of Thunder Weather Site News!
I have now added along with Ustream a still FTP Program on the main page, where I can shoot some stills and upload them directly onto the site. I think this will be a little better than ustream since my connection is so poor with this dialup. I will still use it however at times. Also have downloaded a video editing program where I can shoot live video then upload straight to site or too Youtube with voice.

John

http://www.echoofthunder.com

Echo Of Thunder — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 03:26:15 +0000

all I can say is Thank god this snow storm is done.

14 inches

year is almost done.

Echo Of Thunder — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:13:32 +0000

well 2009 is almost done with, what a year it was too. We did get lucky with El Nino however. Just 9 named storms with no landfalling hurricanes and of that 9 the 2 that did make land fall came in as Topical Storms. The two storms Claudette and Ida both came in to Alabama, with minor damages reported, however Ida did work her way up the eastern sea board and with help from a cold front and another area of low pressure caused well what some had called the perfect storm part 2. There was a lot of damage to the beaches up and down the east coast from New York state to SC, with flooding rains also a problem.

As for the rest of the year wise. Operation Vortex 2 kicked off in May to a slow start. they did however manage to catch one from start to finish, and got something like 40 mins worth of data on the storm which I feel sure will take a couple of years for it all to be put to use. Just wish that I could have been out there chasing with them.

Part 2 of operation Vortex will begin 1st week in may, so it should be interesting to see how it all plays out. If you remember last season Tornadoes had really been popping up just before V2 started and slowed down with the start of the operation. I feel as they may have wanted to start sooner just for that reason. Could be a good idea too with El Nino to last until the spring of 2010. I feel as of today that with this. We may see a early tornado season again this year. but we all know this could change if El Nino leaves us sooner than forecasted.

This too could mean a interesting hurricane season as well.
on 12/8/09 Dr William Gray and Dr Phillip Klotzbach released there 2010 Hurricane predictions.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
9 December 2009
Forecast for 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
11-16
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
51-75
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
6-8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
24-39
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)
3-5
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)
6-12
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
100-162
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
108-172

from what they say above it could be near to a little above avg this season. I am gonna go out on a very big thin limb and disagree with them on the total of Named Storms. They called for 11 to 16 named.
I do feel however that the good Doctors will be close with there call, but a little high. I am thinking right now more in the line of 8 to 12 named. Later in the season that the Doctors and CSU will update there forecast but I am gonna stand my ground on my 8 to 12 Named.

Well other than this really not much to say other than about the cold and nasty temps in the mid west. They have even had snow as far south as Houston Tx! yet all I have had here on the NJ shore is a flurry or two and some rain. Temps today here at this post is 30F and sunny but too damned windy.

Well have a good one all and happy holidays

John

HTTP://WWW.ECHOOFTHUNDER.COM

Rain and snow

Echo Of Thunder — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 23:55:36 +0000

Well Winter started today here on the NJ Shore. Rained all day then turned over to snow about 5pm. Now at 6:50pm back to rain and sleet. Can we say messy? I had so hoped for some of the white stuff today. Had even gone as far as to fire up the video stream for it. All I got was RAIN! Rain

RIP Quickscat

Echo Of Thunder — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 05:04:34 +0000

Well my friends, today is a sad day in the weather world. I was informed this evening of the loss of the QuickSCAT Satellite. This is really gonna throw a monkey into the fire now due to, we will not have any coverage of a scatometer until at least 2015 or 2016 when the next generation scatormeter will be launched. This past week Mr Bill Porenza was the guest on the Barometer Bob show and he talked of all this and his fears. I think that I can speak for us all when I say, HELP WE NEED THIS NOW!

QICKSCAT GOES DOWN

Well here it is almost Thanksgiving so I would like to wish all of you a very happy and safe Thanksgiving, before I get into the weather here and about.

Well I don’t think some of you will like what I am about to say so you may wanna go south for the winter, or the time being anyways. Today I was looking around at some of the weather precip models and low and behold There will be a touch of the white stuff for thanksgiving. Where you may ask? I am not gonna tell ya hehe. just joking. From what I could see maybe northern ILL and IN could be seeing some. maybe mixing in with some rain as well. I do not think it will be a white Chi town Turkeyday but maybe a little slick.
As for us here on the east coast, namely NJ? There will be a pesky low pressure area moving it’s way up the east coast. I do not feel as it will be anything like the one of 2 weeks ago, being it will be far enough off shore by the time it reaches the NJ Area, However? and this is a big IF, some of the model runs have the low ramping up by the time it gets to around Maine. So even though our local NWS is calling for rain and showers starting Wednesday Night, I feel as it will hold off until Late Friday into Saturday. Sorry fokes I know just in time for the home bound drive. but hey be happy the temps should be holding in the 50’s and lows in the 40s to upper 30’s for here on the shore.

In closing as I said I hope everyone will have a very nice and peaceful thanksgiving

John

Echo Of Thunder Weather

long dull Saturday

Echo Of Thunder — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 05:49:36 +0000

Well it was a long and dull Saturday, did however get some things done.
I had a short chat with Bret Adair from Alabama storm chasers today. I asked him if it he would allow me to use his stream on echo of thunder and he agreed Thank You Brett. Your the man.

Now on to the weather.
Very beautiful here in NJ today. Mid 50’s with just a few afternoon passing angel hair clouds with a cobalt sky. so beautiful it was. Better than it was from Texas into Ms today. they are now catching that Low pressure area along with the warm front. as for bringing any svr weather to the areas? Notta

SPC AC 220046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

VALID 220100Z – 221200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST…

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE LA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND TO OVER SERN MS BY 22/12Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT /NOW 50-100
NM S OF THE MS/AL/FL PNHDL COASTS/ WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH TSTMS CONCURRENTLY MOVING/DEVELOPING NWD/NEWD WITHIN
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE MAJORITY OF TSTMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION WITH ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT
REMAINING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..MEAD.. 11/22/2009
That is straight from the SPC day one. Looking at the grlevel there is a few nice cells just coming onshore just west of Pensacola Fla. “Sorry no graphics due to my host is acting up.”
I tend to be in agreement with the SPC. I would have to say right now. rain. But I would not 100% rule out a stray thunderstorm with some small hail. We all know there is always that slight chance.

Well our local met on TV said maybe a snow showers to the North and West of the City for Friday/ He means New York City By the way. From what I have seen tonight of the GFS NAM and a few other models plus looking at a few other cities and there forecasts all I cam say is this. “I’m dreaming of a white thanksgiving?” that’s right my friends I said it S N O W but good news. Not for me hehehe.
I am thinking more in western NY and Pa. for Friday and Oh and Mi for Thanksgiving day. How much? I am not going to go out that far on the limb and say right now. I will say this. I do not think it will hinder your Thanksgiving that much or your Shopping that Friday. But My advice is this. Monitor your local National Weather Service for any and all information on this upcoming weather.

Have a great one my friends and remember?
Look Ahead or you could be dead

John