Well folks here we go again, but this time it will be the real deal.
For the last few days some of you may have been hearing of the impending winter storm to hit the mid Atlantic states this weekend. well it is the real deal. As of this post I am under a Winter Storm Waring, but however just to my south they have a blizzard warning in effect. I do expect them to move that warning more to the west and north to include cities such as Philly and NYC. Some have even gone as far to say that this storm will make the history books. There will be places in South New Jersey and Delaware that could see over 24 inches of snow. That’s 2 feet folks.
As for timing, I feel myself as it should start up in south Jersey and Delaware early to mid afternoon and work its way north, New York City by early evening. and lasting until sun rise in the south and around noon in nyc. but that is only my feelings.
If you live in these effected areas please stay tuned to your local news outlets TV Radio and such, on the net you can go to your local NWS National Weather Service. I of course will be monitoring it as well at ECHO OF THUNDER WEATHER
I will have all the bells running such as Weather Radar out of New Jersey and when the snow starts here I will have the live stream up and or the stills being uploaded to the site every 30 sec depending on how busy live stream will be.
Now for the really important stuff. Safety.
if you are to be getting these heavy snowfall there are some things you need to remember.
Get your supplies you need early if you have not done so already. Things like Bread milk extra batteries gas for your snow blower. Also a good idea too to have extra blankets on hand because after this snow temps are really gonna take a dive and this snow that will be on the ground will be on it for awhile.
Another thing to remember too, Depending on the type of snow we get, powder or wet heavy stuff. If you must go out and shovel and use your snow blower remember to dress in layers and please DO NOT OVER DO IT! Many a heart attack has been caused by something like shoveling snow.
So in closing my friends please be careful if you must get out. and stay tuned to your local news and weather for any updates in or around your area.
John
Echo of Thunder Weather
back to the ice box again, but this time it’s dry. Ice and snow storm running from AZ to VA! even have had some srv thunderstorms in and around Dallas Fort Worth Metro area. reported by the weather channel a roof of a nursing home was blown off in Stevenson Tx today.
As of this post temp is 21 Degrees at 11:45pm and very windy. Betting wind chills have to be near zero. One word comes to mind. DAMN!
Wow this cold is unreal. Almost the whole eastern part of the US is in the grips of a hell of a cold snap. Snow has been reported as far south as the Fla panhandle “flurries” temps are at or near Zero in Wis and Min. More snow in the forecast more me on Friday too.
Good Ole El Nino, along with our normal 10 to 15yr cold pattern. Gotta love it huh?
Echo Of Thunder Weather Site News!
I have now added along with Ustream a still FTP Program on the main page, where I can shoot some stills and upload them directly onto the site. I think this will be a little better than ustream since my connection is so poor with this dialup. I will still use it however at times. Also have downloaded a video editing program where I can shoot live video then upload straight to site or too Youtube with voice.
John
http://www.echoofthunder.com
well 2009 is almost done with, what a year it was too. We did get lucky with El Nino however. Just 9 named storms with no landfalling hurricanes and of that 9 the 2 that did make land fall came in as Topical Storms. The two storms Claudette and Ida both came in to Alabama, with minor damages reported, however Ida did work her way up the eastern sea board and with help from a cold front and another area of low pressure caused well what some had called the perfect storm part 2. There was a lot of damage to the beaches up and down the east coast from New York state to SC, with flooding rains also a problem.
As for the rest of the year wise. Operation Vortex 2 kicked off in May to a slow start. they did however manage to catch one from start to finish, and got something like 40 mins worth of data on the storm which I feel sure will take a couple of years for it all to be put to use. Just wish that I could have been out there chasing with them.
Part 2 of operation Vortex will begin 1st week in may, so it should be interesting to see how it all plays out. If you remember last season Tornadoes had really been popping up just before V2 started and slowed down with the start of the operation. I feel as they may have wanted to start sooner just for that reason. Could be a good idea too with El Nino to last until the spring of 2010. I feel as of today that with this. We may see a early tornado season again this year. but we all know this could change if El Nino leaves us sooner than forecasted.
This too could mean a interesting hurricane season as well.
on 12/8/09 Dr William Gray and Dr Phillip Klotzbach released there 2010 Hurricane predictions.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
9 December 2009
Forecast for 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
11-16
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
51-75
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
6-8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
24-39
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)
3-5
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)
6-12
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
100-162
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
108-172
from what they say above it could be near to a little above avg this season. I am gonna go out on a very big thin limb and disagree with them on the total of Named Storms. They called for 11 to 16 named.
I do feel however that the good Doctors will be close with there call, but a little high. I am thinking right now more in the line of 8 to 12 named. Later in the season that the Doctors and CSU will update there forecast but I am gonna stand my ground on my 8 to 12 Named.
Well other than this really not much to say other than about the cold and nasty temps in the mid west. They have even had snow as far south as Houston Tx! yet all I have had here on the NJ shore is a flurry or two and some rain. Temps today here at this post is 30F and sunny but too damned windy.
Well have a good one all and happy holidays
John
HTTP://WWW.ECHOOFTHUNDER.COM
Well Winter started today here on the NJ Shore. Rained all day then turned over to snow about 5pm. Now at 6:50pm back to rain and sleet. Can we say messy? I had so hoped for some of the white stuff today. Had even gone as far as to fire up the video stream for it. All I got was RAIN! Rain
Well my friends, today is a sad day in the weather world. I was informed this evening of the loss of the QuickSCAT Satellite. This is really gonna throw a monkey into the fire now due to, we will not have any coverage of a scatometer until at least 2015 or 2016 when the next generation scatormeter will be launched. This past week Mr Bill Porenza was the guest on the Barometer Bob show and he talked of all this and his fears. I think that I can speak for us all when I say, HELP WE NEED THIS NOW!
QICKSCAT GOES DOWN
Well here it is almost Thanksgiving so I would like to wish all of you a very happy and safe Thanksgiving, before I get into the weather here and about.
Well I don’t think some of you will like what I am about to say so you may wanna go south for the winter, or the time being anyways. Today I was looking around at some of the weather precip models and low and behold There will be a touch of the white stuff for thanksgiving. Where you may ask? I am not gonna tell ya hehe. just joking. From what I could see maybe northern ILL and IN could be seeing some. maybe mixing in with some rain as well. I do not think it will be a white Chi town Turkeyday but maybe a little slick.
As for us here on the east coast, namely NJ? There will be a pesky low pressure area moving it’s way up the east coast. I do not feel as it will be anything like the one of 2 weeks ago, being it will be far enough off shore by the time it reaches the NJ Area, However? and this is a big IF, some of the model runs have the low ramping up by the time it gets to around Maine. So even though our local NWS is calling for rain and showers starting Wednesday Night, I feel as it will hold off until Late Friday into Saturday. Sorry fokes I know just in time for the home bound drive. but hey be happy the temps should be holding in the 50’s and lows in the 40s to upper 30’s for here on the shore.
In closing as I said I hope everyone will have a very nice and peaceful thanksgiving
John
Echo Of Thunder Weather
Well it was a long and dull Saturday, did however get some things done.
I had a short chat with Bret Adair from Alabama storm chasers today. I asked him if it he would allow me to use his stream on echo of thunder and he agreed Thank You Brett. Your the man.
Now on to the weather.
Very beautiful here in NJ today. Mid 50’s with just a few afternoon passing angel hair clouds with a cobalt sky. so beautiful it was. Better than it was from Texas into Ms today. they are now catching that Low pressure area along with the warm front. as for bringing any svr weather to the areas? Notta
SPC AC 220046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
VALID 220100Z – 221200Z
…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…
…CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST…
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE LA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND TO OVER SERN MS BY 22/12Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT /NOW 50-100
NM S OF THE MS/AL/FL PNHDL COASTS/ WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH TSTMS CONCURRENTLY MOVING/DEVELOPING NWD/NEWD WITHIN
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE MAJORITY OF TSTMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION WITH ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT
REMAINING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..MEAD.. 11/22/2009
That is straight from the SPC day one. Looking at the grlevel there is a few nice cells just coming onshore just west of Pensacola Fla. “Sorry no graphics due to my host is acting up.”
I tend to be in agreement with the SPC. I would have to say right now. rain. But I would not 100% rule out a stray thunderstorm with some small hail. We all know there is always that slight chance.
Well our local met on TV said maybe a snow showers to the North and West of the City for Friday/ He means New York City By the way. From what I have seen tonight of the GFS NAM and a few other models plus looking at a few other cities and there forecasts all I cam say is this. “I’m dreaming of a white thanksgiving?” that’s right my friends I said it S N O W but good news. Not for me hehehe.
I am thinking more in western NY and Pa. for Friday and Oh and Mi for Thanksgiving day. How much? I am not going to go out that far on the limb and say right now. I will say this. I do not think it will hinder your Thanksgiving that much or your Shopping that Friday. But My advice is this. Monitor your local National Weather Service for any and all information on this upcoming weather.
Have a great one my friends and remember?
Look Ahead or you could be dead
John
Well what a long day this has been. After a wet and rainy nite I woke up to one of New Jersey’s most beautiful fall day. Mid 50’s and sunny. on a scale of 1 to 10 I would give it a 7.5. 7.5 only because it was a little cool to be at the beach haha.
Well with that said on to the good stuff. I got playing around with USTREAM today. In the back of my mind I have always wanted to do some weather streaming on the site. Being here in NJ and well on the dreaded dialup that is very hard much less impossible to do, so I opened an account with them. I hope I can find a chaser or spotter that will be willing to give it a try. Might get more people to come and take a look see at the site. With Winter time here and Hurricane season done on the 30th that means a very slow time for weather sites. I feel as maybe if I can get someone that is willing to stream there cam on the site. be it a simple thunderstorm or shower or some snow or blizzard that may help to get some fokes to come and look.
Maybe just a dream but really would like for echoofthunder.com to be one of the better weather sites on the net.
Well that mess is still coming out of texas. looked a couple of times in the day and saw flash flood warnings in and around corpus cristi texas. about 8pm edt I looked again and it had worked its way up to the houston area. I figure Sunday it should be up around the panhandle of Fla. Depending on the caps and the temps they may have a few rumbles of thunder. Just my feeling though.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
VALID 221200Z – 231200Z
…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…
…SYNOPSIS…
UPR TROUGH OVER E TX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE NRN STREAM OVER THE TN/OH VLYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM…STRONG IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD TO THE S OF THE ALEUTIANS
WILL ARRIVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW EARLY SUNDAY…THEN INTO THE
NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY.
…SERN GA/NRN FL…
SFC LOW ATTENDANT WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH
TRAILING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CDFNT SETTLING SEWD TOWARD NWRN FL LATE
SUNDAY AFTN. MORNING TSTM CLUSTERS/LINES MOVING INTO CNTRL/SRN GA
WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
GA/FL BORDER.
SOME RECOVERY OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER NRN FL IN WAKE OF
MORNING PCPN…BUT FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT POOR LAPSE RATES AND
BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS…UNTIL THE LOW AND
MID-LVL WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PD…THERE WILL BE A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR AN ISOLD STG/SVR TSTM
ACROSS NRN FL/SERN GA. SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLD AND BRIEF TORNADO. WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
..RACY.. 11/21/2009
I still think maybe they will. have to wait and see.
Until tomarrow have a good evening all, and hopefully we will be streaming soon.
John
Well Was a quiet evening here tonight. Listened to the Barometer bob show and was in chat. His Guest tonight was Bill Porenza and the topic was that of the Quickscat. Very interesting to say the least. That is one satellite we do not need to lose at all. Bill said it would be at least 2015 or 2016 we could launch another and even better one from Japan no less. I can not understand why we can not launch that bird here, then spend the extra money to send it up from another country.
Well right now I am sitting here watching the GRLevel 3. Not liking what I cam seeing coming off the southern tip of texas. A large area of thunderstorms. Just happy the SSTs are rather low.
grl
This system however will slowly work its way into Ala and Fla Saturday and Sunday then should be up here by mid week with some more rain. All I be needing huh? But what worries me is the next 2 systems after that. From what I have been seeing and hearing these lows could bring 30 to 40 knot winds to my area long about the end of the month. Going to have to wait and see what plays out. Myself I really have not been a firm believer in models. 3 to 5 days out yes but more than that. I take a wait and see what is what look.
well I am off to bed.
be safe and remember look ahead or you could be dead
John